Demographic change

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Demographic change refers to trends in a population’s age structure. Changes in this age structure are determined by three components: births, deaths and migration (immigration and emigration) [1]. In Germany, demographic change is marked by a birth rate that has been below the death rate since the early 1970s. Together with rising life expectancy, this is leading to an ageing population [2]. The proportion of older people in the population has risen considerably since 2012. This is particularly the case in rural areas, which have experienced a considerable rise in outward migration to urban areas. The more sparsely populated the districts are, the greater the increase [1].

Demographic change is impacting on the state, society, the world of work and the economy, and is leading to rising cost pressure, particularly on the health services and the statutory pensions, medical and long-term care insurance systems.


  • What is accelerating this development, and what is slowing it down?

    Since 2010, the average age of the population has fallen again slightly as a consequence of immigration, as net inward migration is particularly pronounced among younger and middle-aged people. With an average age of 36, the population in Germany with a migration background is on average a good 11 years younger that without a migration background. The birthrate has also risen since 2012, after many years of decline [1]. Despite these compensating effects, the negative birthrate that has prevailed since 1972 will persist in the coming decades. With low net immigration, the total population would begin to decline in 2024, and with moderate net immigration in 2030. Only with extremely high net immigration would the population rise in the coming decades [3].

    Migration can be voluntary or involuntary and have a variety of driving factors, including economic, environmental and social. War and conflicts (present or imminent), human rights violations, and persecution and violence by governments are among the main causes of flight. In August 2023, over a million war refugees from Ukraine alone were present in Germany [4]; in addition, increased migration to Germany is to be expected as a result of unstable political and economic conditions in parts of Africa, in particular. Other factors are likely to accelerate the increase in migration further still. These include aggravated living conditions owing to climate change, natural disasters of increasing frequency and severity, increasing drought and rising water shortages in the southern hemisphere [5]. Conversely, migration can be curbed by national and European regulations, and also by investments for combating the causes of flight, particularly in measures for improving living conditions in the countries of origin. Such measures are, however, not expected to have a significant impact in the near future.

    Since major changes in fertility are unlikely, its impact of on the total population count is considerably lower than that of migration. The effects on the population count of various assumptions concerning life expectancy are even smaller [3].

    The baby-boomer generation has been retiring from the workforce since around 2020. This will result in a significant decline in the available workforce in Germany over the coming 15 years. The labour shortage directly associated with this retirement trend can be offset by higher levels of gainful employment. Measures to achieve this include integration or retention of older female employees in the workforce, greater childcare provision in companies, and raising of the de-facto retirement age, which is still well below the statutory retirement age. Greater immigration of workers, both skilled and unskilled, would also contribute here [3].

  • Who is affected?

    Demographic change and the associated shortage of labour and skilled workers affect all sectors. A need for action particularly exists in the following economic sectors:

    IT systems analysis, user consulting and sales, software development, programming, the electrical engineering industry (mechatronics and automation technology), the sanitary, heating and air conditioning trades, hospitals and clinics, the power generation and distribution industry [6].

  • Examples (only in german)

    The fundamental significance of demographic change for society is now receiving considerable attention in politics, business and occupational safety and health.

  • What do these developments mean for workers’ safety and health?

    Many work-related factors impact adversely on employees’ health, particularly when their effects are sustained for longer periods. They may therefore particularly affect older employees. Risk factors are physical (heavy physical work, forced postures, repetitive work, etc.), psychosocial (high work density, work overload, poor social support, low job satisfaction, etc.) and organizational (shift work, atypical employment relationships).

    Strenuous physical work accelerates age-related loss of muscle function and wear and tear on the body. The risk to older employees of suffering physical complaints and chronic illnesses (cardiovascular and musculoskeletal diseases, high blood pressure) is increased, as is the need for recovery and regeneration times. Body weight, which often increases with age, can exacerbate cardiovascular disorders and complaints in the back, knees and legs [7]. Although absences from work owing to sickness are not significantly more frequent among older employees, they are of longer duration [8]. Overall, employees in higher-skilled occupations with greater decision-making authority and areas of competence, and who perform physically less demanding work, exhibit lower illness patterns typical of older age [7].

    Night work and rotating shifts have a greater impact on older employees’ health. Negative effects may include stomach and intestinal problems, sleep disorders, fatigue, depressive moods, cardiovascular diseases, and also an increased risk of accidents. Willingness to learn can also decrease, particularly if lifelong learning and age and ageing-appropriate learning opportunities have previously been unavailable or were not taken up. The risk of de-skilling also increases with age, i.e. existing qualifications are "devalued" by far-reaching processes of change brought about by new technologies and new organizational and rationalization processes [7].

    At the same time, older employees often work more independently and autonomously than their younger counterparts. Their vocational and life experience equips them to deal with problems and unforeseen events more calmly and flexibly, and thereby to compensate for increasing cognitive losses as they age, for example in the areas of logic and short-term memory. Complex tasks often require very specific experience, which older employees are more likely to possess. Older people are also often at an advantage when performing emotionally challenging tasks (e.g. leadership tasks) that require self-confidence, aplomb and good communication skills. They are often regarded as being more safety-conscious and conscientious and as having better social skills [7]. Young employees are already particularly affected by mental illness: according to one survey, they suffer from depression more frequently than the 55+ age group. Depression often occurs very early in life, when it may also affect a person’s career [9]. Mental strain is likely to become even more exacerbated in a digitalized world of work with rising pressure, work density and performance requirements. To maintain employees’ fitness for work and prevent premature withdrawal from the labour market, all age groups should be addressed by suitable preventive measures.

    Although they cannot be considered per se to suffer health disadvantages, older employees with a migrant background exhibit poorer health in some respects than the rest of the population. This applies in particular to persons aged 45+ who have personal experience as refugees. People with a migration background are also less likely to take advantage of medical rehabilitation measures. They exhibit lower medical rehabilitation success rates and higher early retirement rates. The latter are largely due to the hard physical labour performed by the generation of "guest workers" in Germany [10].

    Demographic change and the digital transformation can combine to produce a range of effects. On the one hand, the digital transformation may result in significant job losses, particularly among older employees. Germany’s public administration, which is lagging in the adoption of digital technologies and presents considerable potential for rationalization, is an example. This risk of redundancy is particularly acute when suitable training measures geared specifically to older employees are not available. Less well-skilled older employees are less likely to be integrated into further training measures, and smaller companies usually find it more difficult to invest in such measures. Conversely, technological developments may provide support and relief for older employees, in particular for the performance of physically strenuous work and/or monotonous activities. For example, exoskeletons may help to create ageing-appropriate workplaces by reducing stress caused by work of poor ergonomic design [11].

    Age stereotypes are widespread in the world of work and can lead to prejudices against older employees. This in turn is a hindrance to effective cooperation between younger and older employees, and may make it more difficult to implement innovations for which the expertise of older employees is also essential [12].

    Properly functioning transfer of knowledge in companies is important, both for retention of the company’s expertise, and for safe and healthy work. A large proportion of older employees are expected to retire within the next few years; almost all companies therefore face the challenge of passing on their knowledge and experience. The usual induction periods of just a few weeks lead to stress for new, inexperienced employees if experienced colleagues are no longer available to mentor them in the longer term. Specialist knowledge and experience are also lost when employees are so badly affected by workplace bullying that they leave the company. The over-55s are often victims of bullying, typically in the form of superiors relieving them of their tasks and thereby signalling that they are no longer needed, which can severely harm their professional self-confidence [7]. Older employees’ willingness to share knowledge depends heavily on whether they feel valued. If this is not the case, they feel insecure and prefer to keep their wealth of experience to themselves [13].

  • What observations have been made for occupational safety and health, and what is the outlook?
    • In the light of demographic trends and the shortage of skilled workers, the performance potential and skills of older employees are urgently needed. Age and ageing-appropriate organization of work to assure a long and healthy working life is essential for society, as well as for companies.
    • The performance of physically or mentally demanding work over a long period of time can lead to workers becoming unfit for work. Timely measures to counter the effects require regular, systematic risk assessments in the company, and good, ergonomic job design.
    • Investment in prevention and early raising of awareness of healthy working practices while employees are still young can maintain their ability to work into old age.
    • Older employees’ mental and physical performance may vary widely. Here, a stronger focus on individual needs can be conducive to occupational safety and health and retention of fitness for work.
    • Owing to the changing world of work and the digital transformation, knowledge is becoming obsolete more quickly and experience is losing its relevance. Strategies to compensate for these developments may be limited in their effectiveness. Further training and measures for enhancing skills, appropriate to the age group in question, can contribute to maintaining health, including mental health.
    • A corporate culture that discriminates against older workers is not compatible with a culture of prevention.
    • Underlying conditions in companies that assure safe and healthy work are a mark of quality in the competition between companies for new personnel.
    • A culture of prevention in all areas of life and across all age groups - implemented by comprehensive, joint effort by different parts of the social security system - can help prevent younger people from suffering illness unnecessarily early, and keep older people healthy for longer.
    • Where the primary labour market is opened for population groups that were previously under-represented, in order to increase the recruitment of skilled workers from these groups, occupational safety and health is presented with challenges arising from their particular needs, for example those of individuals with health impairments, or immigrants.
    • Digital innovations must always be examined for their potential to create age and ageing-appropriate jobs.
  • Sources (in German only)

    [1] Demografischer Wandel. Hrsg.: Statistisches Bundesamt, Wiesbaden 2023 https://www.destatis.de/DE/Themen/Querschnitt/Demografischer-Wandel/_inhalt.html (abgerufen am 15.9.2023)

    [2] Demografischer Wandel. Hrsg.: Bundeszentrale für politische Bildung (BPB), Bonn 2016 https://www.bpb.de/kurz-knapp/lexika/lexikon-der-wirtschaft/240461/demografischer-wandel/ (abgerufen am 15.9.2023)

    [3] Neue Bevölkerungsvorausberechnung der Statistischen Ämter. Hrsg.: Bundesministerium für Wirtschaft und Klimaschutz, Berlin 2023 https://www.bmwk.de/Redaktion/DE/Schlaglichter-der-Wirtschaftspolitik/2023/05/06-neue-bevoelkerungsvorausberechnung-der-statistischen-aemter.html (abgerufen am 15.9.2023)

    [4] Flüchtlinge aus der Ukraine. Hrsg.: Mediendienst Integration, Berlin 2023 https://mediendienst-integration.de/migration/flucht-asyl/ukrainische-fluechtlinge.html (abgerufen am 15.9.2023)

    [5] Was sind die Ursachen von Migration? Hrsg.: Generaldirektion Kommunikation - Europäisches Parlament, Straßburg 2023 https://www.europarl.europa.eu/pdfs/news/expert/2020/7/story/20200624STO81906/20200624STO81906_de.pdf (abgerufen am 15.9.2023)

    [6] Die Folgen des demografischen Wandels. Hrsg.: Bundeszentrale für politische Bildung (BPB), Bonn 2016 https://www.bpb.de/shop/zeitschriften/izpb/demografischer-wandel-350/507789/die-folgen-des-demografischen-wandels/ (abgerufen am 15.9.2023)

    [7] Alterns- und altersgerechte Arbeitsgestaltung. Hrsg.: Bundesanstalt für Arbeitsschutz und Arbeitsmedizin, Dortmund 2017 https://www.baua.de/DE/Angebote/Publikationen/Praxis/Arbeitsgestaltung.html (abgerufen am 15.9.2023)

    [8] BKK Gesundheitsreport 2018. Hrsg.: BKK Dachverband e.V., Berlin 2018 https://www.bkk-dachverband.de/publikationen/bkk-gesundheitsreport/bkk-gesundheitsreport-2018 (abgerufen am 21.11.2023)

    [9] Junge Arbeitnehmer leiden häufiger an Depression. Hrsg.: Süddeutsche Zeitung GmbH, München 2022 https://www.sueddeutsche.de/wirtschaft/arbeit-junge-arbeitnehmer-leiden-haeufiger-an-depression-dpa.urn-newsml-dpa-com-20090101-220916-99-782111 (abgerufen am 29.9.2023)

    [10] Auszug aus dem Datenreport 2021 - Kapitel 9: Gesundheit. Hrsg.: Statistisches Bundesamt, Wiesbaden 2021 https://www.destatis.de/DE/Service/Statistik-Campus/Datenreport/Downloads/datenreport-2021-kap-9.html (abgerufen am 2.10.2023)

    [11] Exoskelette. Hrsg.: Deutsche Gesetzliche Unfallversicherung e.V. (DGUV), Berlin 2022 https://www.dguv.de/ifa/praxishilfen/praxishilfen-ergonomie/exoskelette/index.jsp (abgerufen am 29.11.2023)

    [12] Wie Sie Al­ter­s­ste­reo­ty­pe er­ken­nen und über­win­den. Hrsg.: Bundesministerium für Arbeit und Soziales (BMAS), Berlin 2023 https://www.inqa.de/DE/themen/diversity/diversitaetsmanagement/besser-altern-im-betrieb.html (abgerufen am 27.11.2023)

    [13] Warum Diskriminierung von älteren Kollegen dem Unternehmen schadet. Hrsg.: FAZ.NET, Frankfurt am Main 2021 https://www.faz.net/aktuell/rhein-main/region-und-hessen/diskriminierung-von-aelteren-mitarbeitern-schadet-unternehmen-17138997.html (abgerufen am 15.9.2022)

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